简介:Inthispaper,thecharacteristicsofeasternAsianduststormareexaminedwithemphasisonthesatellitemeasurementsofaerosolopticalthickness.Thereflectivityofsolarradiationfromtheearth’satmospheredependsontheopticalthickness.Thesatellitemeasurementofradianceofsunlight,scatteredbytheearthanditsatmosphere,isusedtoderivethepropertiesofaerosolonoceanicsurfaces.Thispaperinvolvesthefollowing:(1)investigationofthemeasurementofduststormovertheoceanicsurfacebyGMSsatellite;(2)investigationofthemeasurementofduststormoverthelandsurfacebyground-basedinstrumentssuchasactinometer,lidar,etc.;(3)forcomparison,derivinganatmosphericaerosolsizedistributionovertheoceanicsurfaceofcalmweatherthroughmeasurementsofNOAAsatellite;and(4)theweatherprocessanditsmassloadofeasternAsianduststorm.
简介:在Bohai海湾的热带以外的暴风雨巨浪和淹没的一个二维的数字模型基于不稳定的流动海军司烧方程被造。模型包括了二节,一个人为暴风雨巨浪的模拟为在沿海的区域的暴风雨巨浪淹没的模拟的潮汐的水平和其它。当模仿暴风雨时,澎湃潮汐的水平,轮流出现的方向含蓄(ADI)方法被用于驱散并且解决2D暴风雨巨浪方程。在暴风雨巨浪淹没的模拟,2D不稳定的流动方程被驱散并且解决了使用有限体积方法(FVM)的无结构的格子。淹没和暴风雨巨浪的过程的Acoupling计算模式潮汐的水平变化被建议,当模仿并且预报暴风雨巨浪的过程时,因此,暴风雨巨浪淹没过程和区域能被计算潮汐的安装。而且,在Bohai海湾的热带以外的暴风雨巨浪和淹没用这个数字模型被模仿。模拟结果在对测量数据的好同意,它证明这个数字模型提供在Bohai海湾模仿并且预报暴风雨巨浪和淹没的一个新方法。
简介:作为预报问题的数据吸收和整体的一条统一途径,整体Kalman过滤器(EnKF)被用来暴风雨整体预报在232007年5月30日期间在东亚指向一个灰尘事件调查灰尘的性能。输入风地,灰尘排放紧张,和干燥免职速度里的错误在重要模型不确定性之中并且在模型错误不安被考虑。这些模型错误没被假定有零工具。代表模型偏爱的模型错误工具作为数据吸收进程的部分被估计。从一个激光雷达网络的观察被吸收产生起始的整体并且改正模型偏爱。整体预报技巧与观察和一张基准/控制预报被作比较,没有任何观察的吸收,它是简单模型跑。没有模型偏爱修正,另一个整体预报实验也被执行以便检验偏爱修正的影响。结果证明整体平均数,确定的预报在控制上有实质的改进预报并且正确地捕获在每个观察地点预定的主要灰尘到达和停止。然而,当预报铅时间增加,预报技巧减少。偏爱修正进一步改进了预报在在风区域下面。在24个小时以内的预报最被改进并且比那些好没有偏爱修正。用操作典型曲线和区域的荆棘分数和亲戚的整体预报技巧的考试显示预报系统的整体有有用预报技巧。
简介:严重流行性感冒为人在它的毒力仍然保持不平常。复杂并发症或最终,从这些感染产生的死亡经常与proinflammatorycytokine生产的hyperinduction被联系,它也作为‘被知道;cytokinestorm’;。为这疾病,immunomodulatory治疗可以改进结果,这被建议了,与或没有抗病毒的代理人的联合。这里,我们考察免疫系统的各种各样的受动器怎么开始cytokine暴风雨并且在主人加重病理学的损坏的当前的文学。我们也在严重流行性感冒为cytokine暴风雨的治疗考察一些当前的immunomodulatory策略,包括corticosteroids,peroxisome激活proliferator的受体收缩筋,sphingosine-1-phosphate受体1收缩筋,cyclooxygenase-2禁止者,抗氧化剂,anti-tumour-necrosis因素治疗,静脉内的免疫球蛋白治疗,statins,arbidol,植物,并且另外的潜在的治疗学的策略。
简介:下游的移动与暴风雨长度袭击的假设不到分水岭长度(Ls/L<1.0)放大在以前的研究由运动学波浪的模型显示了的山峰分泌物在无尺寸的山峰分泌物和无尺寸的暴风雨速度的分析被评估。在UrbanaChampaign在伊利诺大学在分水岭试验系统(WES)为一个塑造V的分水岭收集的以前未出版的试验性的数据,与一个运动学波浪的模型的模拟结果比较被使用。与L山峰与静止暴风雨相比解除到有限程度的s/L<1.0增加,和运动学波浪的模型说大话源于下游的移动的山峰流动的增加与Ls/L<1.0。为了评估回水的重要性,在试验性的分水岭完成,为源于在上游、下游的动人的暴风雨的表面流量的模拟的运动学波浪、动态波浪的模型的精确性被评估利用一样的试验性的数据。运动学波浪的模型模仿在上游的移动暴风雨相当好,即模型的NashSutcliffe系数分别地为等于、不等于分水岭长度的暴风雨长度适合等于0.948和0.831的效率。而,运动学的波浪模型实质地过高估计下游地移动暴风雨,和收益的山峰分泌物通常更差比为在上游的动人的暴风雨适合,即为有等于、不等于分水岭长度的长度的暴风雨的NSE平等者到0.867和0.674分别地。动态波浪的模型模仿下游的移动暴风雨相当好,即为有等于、不等于分水岭长度的长度的暴风雨的NSE平等者到0.843和0.879分别地,显示回水显著地为甚至这个简单试验性的分水岭影响流量。考虑到那个暴风雨运动实质地没放大山峰分泌物,在标准hydrologic设计做的静止暴风雨的假设似乎合理、足够。
简介:Sand-duststormsaretheresultoftheintegratedinfluencesofclimate,geography,societyandhumanfactors.Atheoreticalframeworkisbuilttoexplainthecoherenceofpopulationgrowth,agriculturechangeandenvironmentaldegradation.Onthebasisoftheanalysisofthecausesofthesand-duststormintermsofhumanfactors,adiscussionwillbegiventoshowthatthesefactorsareinternallyconsistentwiththetheoreticalframework.Afterthat,itwilllookatChina'sAgenda21andtrytofindrelevantmeasurestoreducesuchlargesand-duststormshappeninginNorthwestChinaandeventuallymakethisareadevelopsustainably.
简介:3-D雷达反射率数据向对流规模在数据吸收为使用变得日益重要数字天气预言以及下一代降水评价。典型地,从多重雷达的反射率数据客观地被分析并且mosaiced到地区性的3-D上在被吸收进模型以前的笛卡儿的格子。与多雷达观察的马赛克联系的科学问题之一是所有观察的同步。后来,雷达数据很快通常被更新(∼every510min),由假设暴风雨在窗口以内是稳定的在一个时间窗口以内联合多重radar'观察在当前的多雷达马赛克技术是普通的。假设为慢发展降水系统成立很好,要不是快发展对流暴风雨,这个假设可以被违背,在不同时间的雷达观察的马赛克可以导致不精密的暴风雨结构描写。这研究用追踪算法的多尺度的暴风雨在多重雷达数据分析在暴风雨结构上调查同步的影响。
简介:StormsthatoccurattheBayofBengal(BoB)areofabimodalpattern,whichisdifferentfromthatoftheotherseaareas.ByusingtheNCEP,SSTandJTWCdata,thecausesofthebimodalpatternstormactivityoftheBoBarediagnosedandanalyzedinthispaper.TheresultshowsthattheseasonalvariationofgeneralatmospherecirculationinEastAsiahasaregulatingandcontrollingimpactontheBoBstormactivity,andthe'bimodalperiod'ofthestormactivitycorrespondsexactlytotheseasonalconversionperiodofatmosphericcirculation.Theminorwindspeedofshearspringandautumncontributedtothestorm,whichwasacrucialfactorforthegenerationandoccurrenceofthe'bimodalpattern'stormactivityintheBoB.Theanalysisonseasurfacetemperature(SST)showsthattheSSTsofalltheyeararoundintheBoBareameettheconditionsrequiredforthegenerationoftropicalcyclones(TCs).However,theSSTsinthecentralareaofthebayarehigherthanthatofthesurroundingareasinspringandautumn,whichfacilitatestheoccurrenceofa'two-peak'stormactivitypattern.Thegenesispotentialindex(GPI)quantifiesandreflectstheenvironmentalconditionsforthegenerationoftheBoBstorms.ForGPI,theintenselow-levelvortexdisturbanceinthetroposphereandhigh-humidityatmospherearethesufficientconditionsforstorms,whilelargemaximumwindvelocityofthegroundvortexradiusandsmallverticalwindsheararethenecessaryconditionsofstorms.
简介:Inthispaper,theparametrictropicalcyclonemodelsforstormsurgemodelingarefurtherdeveloped.Insteadoftangentialwindspeedviacyclostrophicbalanceandradialwindspeedusingasimpleformulationofdefectionangle,theanalyticalexpressionsoftangentialandradialwindspeeddistributionarederivedfromthegoverningmomentumequationsbasedonthegeneralsymmetricpressuredistributionofHollandandFujita.Theradiusofthemaximumwindisestimatedbytropicalcyclonewindstructurewhichischaracterizedbytheradialextentofspecialwindspeed.TheshapeparameterinthepressuremodelisestimatedbythedataofseveraltropicalcyclonesthatoccurredintheEastChinaSea.Finally,theFredcyclone(typhoon199417)iscalculated,andcomparisonsofthemeasuredandcalculatedairpressuresandwindspeedarepresented.
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简介:UsingsingleDopplerweatherradarechoinformation,thispaperpresentsatechniqueforrecognizingtwo-di-mensionalflowfieldstructureoftheseverestormandestimatingthedivergence,thevorticity,andtheintensityofwindshearline,andgivessomeexamples.
简介:Theactivitiesofgeomagneticstormsaregenerallycontrolledbysolaractivities.Thecurrentsolarcycle(SC)24isfoundtobemild;comparedtoSCs19–23,thestormoccurrenceandsizederivedbyaveragingtheoccurrencenumberandDstaroundthesolarmaximumarereducedbyabout50–82%and36–61%,respectively.Weestimateseparately,forSC19to24,therepeatintervalsbetweengeomagneticstormsofspecificDst,basedonfitsofpower-lawandlog-normaldistributionstothestormdataforeachSC.RepeatintervalsbetweensupergeomagneticstormswithDst≤–250nTarefoundtobe0.36–2.95year(s)forSCs19–23,butabout20yearsbasedonthedataforSC24.Wealsoestimatetherepeatintervalsbetweencoronalmassejections(CMEs)ofspecificspeed(VCME)sinceCMEsareknowntobethemaindriversofintensestormsandtherelatedstatisticsmayprovideinformationaboutthepotentialoccurrenceofsupergeomagneticstormsfromthelocationoftheSun.OuranalysisfindsthataCMEwithVCME≥1860km/smayoccuronceper3and5monthsinSC23and24,respectively.BasedonaVCME-Dstrelationship,suchafastCMEmaycauseastormwithDst=–250nTifarrivingattheEarth.BycomparingtheobservedgeomagneticstormstostormsexpectedtobecausedbyCMEs,wederivetheprobabilityofCMEcausedstorms,whichisdependentonVCME.ForaCMEfasterthan1860km/s,theprobabilityofaCMEcausedstormwithDst≤–250nTisabout1/5forSC23or1/25forSC24.AlloftheaboveresultssuggestthatthelikelihoodoftheoccurrenceofsupergeomagneticstormsissignificantlyreducedinamildSC.
简介:AnestednumericalstormsurgeforecastmodelfortheEastChinaSeaisdeveloped.Aone-wayrelaxingnestmethodisusedtoexchangetheinformationbetweencoarsegridandfinegrid.Intheinnerboundaryofthefinegridmodelatransitionareaissetuptorelaxtheforecastvariables.Thisensuresthattheforecastvariablesofthecoarsemodelmaytransittothoseoffinegridgradually,whichenhancesthemodelstability.Byusingthismodel,anumberofhindcastsandforecastareperformedforsixseverestormsurgescausedbytropicalcyclonesintheEastChinaSea.Theresultsshowgoodagreementwiththeobservations.
简介:Thetypicalblackstormsorsand-duststormsinthenorthwesternChinaaregeneratedanddevelopedthroughaninteractionbetweenthespecificlargescalecirculationpatternandmesosealesystems.Thepassingby/overahugesand-abundantdesertofastrongcoldfrontwithintensivefrontalzoneatmidandlowerlevelsisanecessaryconditionfortheformationanddevelopmentofablackstormoraseveresand-duststorm.Inordertoinvestigatethemechanismofthesand-dustmobilization,transportandsedimentationduringtheblackorsand-duststorms,aparameterizationschemeofsand-dustsource-sinktermsandanequationoftransportforthesand-dustwereproposedandincorporatedintotheMM4mesoscalemodel.ThemodifiedMM4modelwasappliedtothe“May1993”blackstormcaseandsucceededinreproducingtheevolutionoftheweathersystemsassociatedwiththeblack-storm,thesand-dustconcentrationatsurfacelayeranditsverticaldistribution,andthesand-dustsedimentationandtransport.Ourresultsshowthatthenumericalsimulatingmethodbyusingamesoscalemodel,withinclusionofanequationofthesand-dusttransportandaparameterizationschemeofthesand-dustsource-sinkterms,isapromisingapproachtostudythemechanismforsand-dustmobilization,transportandsedimentationduringasand-duststormevent.
简介:WhensupertyphoonSepatcameclosetotheFujiancoastlineonthenightof18August2007(codedas0709inChineseconvention),anassociatedtornado-likeseverestormdevelopedat2307–2320BeijingStandardTimeinLonggang,CangnanCounty,WenzhouPrefecture,ZhejiangProvinceapproximately300kmawayintheforwarddirectionofthetyphoon.Thestormcausedheavylossesinlivesandproperty.Studyingthebackgroundoftheformationofthestorm,thispaperidentifiessomeofitstypicalcharacteristicsafteranalyzingitsretrievalofDopplerradardata,verticalwindshearandsoon.Synopticconditions,suchasunstableweatherprocessesandTBB,arealsostudied.