摘要
AccordingtotheUnitedNationspopulationprojections,thepopulationoftheelderlyisexpectedtoroughlytripleinChinafrom2000to2050,particularlywhenthegenerationswhowerebornbetweenthe1950sand1970smovethroughtheagestructure,andalsobecausepeoplearelivinglongerandfertilityrateshavefallen,populationagingisexpectedtoputpressureongovernment'sfiscalbalancethroughhigherold-agesecuritybenefitsandhealth-careexpenditures.Thisworkdrawstogetherthebroadrangeofelementsinvolvedwithinaconsistentframework,basedonacomputabledynamicgeneralequilibriummodelwithanoverlappinggenerationstructure.Furtheranalysisusingmodelsimulationillustratesthatthealternativeschemesforthebenefitrate,retirementageandtechnologicalprogressarelikelytobebeneficial,andthatanobviousslow-downinthegrowthoflivingstandardsislikelytobeavoided.
出版日期
2004年03月13日（中国期刊网平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）
