摘要
Universaltwo-childpolicyhasbeenimplementedsincetheendof2015inChina.Thispolicyisanticipatedtobringasignificantincreaseinthetotalpopulation,withprofoundinfluencesontheresourcesandenvironmentinthefuture.Thispaperanalyzesthechangingdynamicsofurbanandruralpopulation,andforecastsurbanandruralpopulationfrom2016to2030atnationalandprovincialscaleusingadoubleloglinearregressionmodel.Drawingupontheresultsofthesetwopredictions,theimpactofthepopulationpolicychangeonChineseresourcesconsumptionandenvironmentalpollutionarepredictedquantitatively.Giventhefuturetotalpopulationmaintainscurrentlevelsonresourcesconsumptionandenvironmentalemission,theadditionaldemandofresourcesandenvironmentdemandforthenewpopulationisforecastedandcomparedagainstthecapacityonsupplyside.Thefindingsareasfollows:afterimplementingtheuniversaltwo-childpolicy,China'sgrain,energyconsumption,domesticwaterdemand,andpollutantemissionsareprojectedtoincreaseatdifferentratesacrossprovinces.Tomeettheneedsarisingfromfuturepopulationgrowth,foodandenergyself-sufficiencyratewillbesignificantlyreducedinthefuture,whilerelyingmoreonimports.Stabilityofthewatersupplyneedstobeimproved,especiallyinBeijing,Henan,Jiangsu,Qinghai,andSichuanwherethegapinfuturedomesticwaterdemandiscomparativelylarger.Environmentalprotectionandassociatedgoverningcapabilityareinurgentneedofupgradenotleastduetotheincreasingpressureofpollution.
出版日期
2016年04月14日（中国期刊网平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）
